Romy Haber
Saad al-Hariri has announced his withdrawal from politics and researchers have rushed to share their concerns about the “potential rise of extremism”. They are worried about the radicalization of the Sunnis after the exit of a dominant communal representative. It is wrong to assume that political withdrawal of a politician will radicalize a community.
Followers of the future movement are not moderate because of Saad Al Hariri. They chose Saad Al-Hariri because they are moderate and wanted someone like him to represent them. They were promised economic prosperity like the gulf countries, modernism, and strong anti-Hezbollah policies. Hariri failed to deliver any of these, he did the opposite. From corruption to dangerous alliances and deals, Hariri disappointed everyone, including his community. His parliamentary bloc lost seats in the last elections and was going to lose more in the next elections. Hariri is running away from accountability and another humiliating loss. It is worth noting that it is not his first political break and he already resigned 4 times before.
The concerns of radicalization come from observations of what happened in Syria and Iraq: The long-term marginalization of Sunnis, along with extreme poverty, failed counter-insurgency policies and other factors have contributed to the rise of extremism.
And while political theaters are filled with uncertainty and risk, in Lebanon, the majority of the supporters of the Future party are not a potential threat of extremism. The risk comes from radical parties that have political Islam or Islamic fundamentalism for ideology. These parties already exist but cannot be the dominant representatives of the community.
Therefore, Hariri’s exit is not a threat but it can be an opportunity for Sunnis to find representatives that fulfill their expectations. Many potential candidates are gaining momentum including Fouad Makhzoumi and Bahaa al-Hariri who seems more trusted by Gulf countries than his younger brother.
To avoid marginalization, communities need more than “new leaders”. Representation of a community doesn’t come from individuals with strong speeches but from a system. Federalism can give Sunnis (and other sects) the representation they deserve. Potential candidates who want to work for the interests of Sunnis and Lebanon should be demanding Federalism. In the current system, communities are not represented, their leaders are. A community shouldn’t have to worry about its representation when a politician leaves. Their interests and representation should be guaranteed in a system: Federalism.
On the other hand, pushing for a new system would put Hezbollah under pressure. Hezbollah has exploited the current system to its interests. A decentralized alternative would be more challenging, especially if it gives Sunnis and other communities more freedom from the government Hezbollah controls. Asking the international community for UN resolutions and organizing conferences against Hezbollah’s weapons are plans that have been already tried. It is time to step up the game.
Sunnis need federalism for proper representation, not new corrupt politicians.